[ZEW Newsletter English Edition] 2014-10 *zew-newsletter-englishedition at mx-assp2.zew.de* zew-newsletter-englishedition at mx-assp2.zew.de /Thu Oct 30 16:14:25 MET 2014/ * *Messages sorted by:* [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ Z E W N E W S L E T T E R E N G L I S H E D I T I O N No. 2014-10 October 30, 2014 (Yvonne Braeutigam, newsletter-en at zew.de ) http://www.zew.eu _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ Content 1. NEWS 2. CALL FOR PAPERS 2.1. 2015 ZEW Public Finance Conference 3. PRESS RELEASES 4. RECENT PUBLICATIONS IN ENGLISH 4.1. ZEWnews English Edition 4.2. Financial Market Report Switzerland 4.3. ZEW Discussion Papers 4.4. Expertises/Research Reports IN GERMAN 4.5. ZEW-Finanzmarktreport (ZEW Financial Market Report) 4.6. ZEW-Branchenreport Informationswirtschaft (ZEW Sector Report for the Information Economy) 5. NEW RESEARCH PROJECTS 6. EVENTS 6.1. Public Events 6.2. Scientific Events _____________________________________________________________________ 1. NEWS 2014 Innovation Indicator - Germany Secures International Position: Germany is still in a good shape when it comes to innovation strength. In an international comparison of 35 industrial nations, Germany ranked sixth. The leading countries, Switzerland and Singapore, remain well ahead of Germany, while the countries on positions three to five, i.e. Sweden, Belgium and Finland, are almost within reach. This is one of the results of the 2014 Innovation Indicator. The study was conducted by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI), and the Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology at the University of Maastricht (MERIT). Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/news/2787 29.10.2014 Sixth ReCapNet Conference at ZEW: China's housing boom, certification of green buildings, and the implications of increasing financial integration on national real estate cycles - these are some of the topics that 30 international scholars discussed at the sixth annual conference of the Leibniz research network "Real Estate Markets and Capital Markets" (ReCapNet). The conference took place at ZEW in Mannheim on October 24-25, 2014. In eleven talks on the two conference days, the participants presented and discussed hypotheses and research results concerning novel types of linkages between international real estate and capital markets, as well as their economic policy implications. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/news/2786 27.10.2014 2014 Beijing Humboldt Forum in Cooperation with ZEW: The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation jointly organised this year's Beijing Humboldt Forum on September 19-21, 2014, in the Chinese capital. Within the framework of the forum, ZEW researchers presented their latest findings concerning Chinese climate policy as well as the development of consumption intensity of CO2 and resources. The forum, which took place under the heading "Cultural Heritage and Green Economy - Technological Innovation, Industrial Growth & Green Mobility", aimed to strengthen the research cooperation between Germany and China in these fields. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/news/2768 23.10.2014 Q&A: Is Germany on the Cusp of the Next Industrial Revolution? "The Implementation of Industry 4.0 Will Remain Limited to Individual Cases for Now": When industrial production melds seamlessly with modern information and communication technologies (ICT), a new economic era called "Industry 4.0" will arise, some experts predict. To explore the potential of Industry 4.0, the German federal government has launched funding initiatives worth 200 million euros. Is this money well spent? ZEW's Irene Bertschek examines the opportunities and challenges associated with Industry 4.0. Professor Irene Bertschek is the head of the "Information and Communication Technologies" Research Department at the Centre for European Economic Research and Professor of applied empirical economics at the University of Mannheim. Read the complete interview:: http://www.zew.de/en/news/2780 15.10.2014 ZEW Lunch Debate in Brussels Addresses the Crisis, Income Inequality and Wealth Disparity: "Are the Fiscal Responses to the Crisis Increasing Income Inequality and Wealth Disparity?" was the topic of the fourth ZEW Lunch Debate in Brussels this year. The event was hosted by the Representation of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg to the European Union. Additional information, picture gallery, and presentations at: http://www.zew.de/en/news/2768 06.10.2014 ZEW Forecast Survey - Banks Lower Forecasts for the German Stock Index DAX: The banks participating in the current ZEW Forecast Survey have revised downward their expectations for the German stock market index in the past three months. On average, however, the banks still expect an upward trend in the stock market development for the end of 2014 as well as for the first quarter of 2015. The majority of banks predict a devaluation of the euro against the US Dollar on a six-month horizon. This is the result of the ZEW Forecast Survey, which is conducted quarterly by the Centre for European Economic Research in cooperation with the Boersenzeitung. The current ZEW Forecast Survey contains further information (in German): http://www.zew.de/de/publikationen/prognosetest 2. CALL FOR PAPERS 2.1. 2015 ZEW Public Finance Conference 2015 ZEW Public Finance Conference (April 27-28, 2015): The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) is pleased to announce the 2015 Annual Public Finance Conference in Mannheim from April 27 to 28, 2015. While papers on all aspects of empirical and applied theoretical issues in public finance are welcome, the focus of this year's conference will be on European tax policy. Submissions that relate to the topics specified in the call for papers are particularly welcome. Please submit your paper via our conference management website at http://zew.converia.de/?sub=13 no later than February 15, 2015. The conference fee will be waived for presenters. Furthermore, we will contribute to covering accommodation expenses for presenters of accepted papers. Additional information and call for papers: http://www.zew.de/publicfinance2015 3. PRESS RELEASES 27.10.2014 - ZEW (der/ggr/jpr) German Information Economy - Optimism Prevails Despite Slight Downturn: In the third quarter of 2014, the economic sentiment among companies in the information economy remains positive. Even though the ZEW Sentiment Indicator for the Information Economy has recorded a quarter-on-quarter drop by 1.6 points, the high level of 63.1 points signals an ongoing positive development of the sector. This trend is also reflected in the fact that more than half of the companies in the information economy sector were able to improve their business situation compared to the previous quarter, or expect a positive economic development in the final quarter of 2014. These are the findings of a survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in the information economy sector in September 2014. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2783 23.10.2014 - ZEW (she/fkr/jpr) The Aftermath of Fukushima - German Nuclear Phase-out Leads to Electricity Price Increases: The Fukushima nuclear disaster cost Germany and its neighbours dear. A study conducted by ZEW shows that Germany's nuclear phase-out led to an increase in electricity costs on the European Energy Exchange by an average of seven per cent in the two years after the accident. After the reactor accident of Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011, six German nuclear power plants with a total net nominal capacity of 6.3 gigawatts were immediately shut down. In a current study, researchers from ZEW as well as the Universities of Warwick (UK) and Verona (Italy) conducted the first in-depth analysis of the impact of this turning point in power generation. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2776 21.10.2014 - ZEW (ibe/joh/fkr/jpr) Digital Agenda - Companies Need Fast and Secure Networks: The companies in the information economy are calling for a nationwide broadband infrastructure with a download speed of at least 50 Mbit/s as well as secure digital services. A fast and reliable broadband infrastructure should also be centre stage in the federal government's Digital Agenda, according to the companies in this economic sector. This is the result of a current study by ZEW. More than half of the companies in the information economy (52 per cent) attach top priority to the nationwide expansion of high-speed broadband infrastructure. In particular the media service providers (60 per cent) and IT service providers (55 per cent) believe there is urgent need for government action concerning the nationwide expansion of broadband with at least 50 Mbit/s by 2018. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2774 16.10.2014 - ZEW (mbo/ggr/jpr) ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations Improve Slightly: In October 2014 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) improve slightly. In the current survey the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has gained 3.7 points and reaches a level of 7.0 points. Among the individual countries, the largest improvement can be noted for the Poland indicator which has increased by 19.7 points on October. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts' expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank in Vienna since 2007. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2772 15.10.2014 - ZEW (mbo/ggr/jpr) ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - Economic Expectations Drop Sharply: In October 2014 economic expectations for Switzerland decline sharply by 23.0 points. The ZEW-CS Indicator slides down to a level of minus 30.7 points, reaching a two-year low. The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2766 14.10.2014 - ZEW (jrr/jpr) ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment - Further Economic Slowdown Expected: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany drops by 10.5 points in October 2014 and now stands at minus 3.6 points (long-term average: 24.5 points). Decreasing for the tenth consecutive time, the index has returned to negative territory for the first time since November of 2012. "ZEW's financial market experts expect the economic situation in Germany to decline further over the medium term. Geopolitical tensions and the weak economic development in some parts of the eurozone, which is falling short of previous expectations, are a source of persistent uncertainty. These factors are tarnishing growth expectations in Germany. Disappointing figures concerning incoming orders, industrial production, and foreign trade have likely contributed to the growing pessimism among financial market experts," says ZEW President Professor Clemens Fuest. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2764 10.10.2014 - ZEW (jeh/fkr/jpr) German Book Market Will Be Confronted with New Challenges: The German book trade has been facing competition from the rapidly growing sector of online booksellers since the mid-1990s. The increasing spread of e-books is also a widely discussed topic. But what changes have so far actually taken place on the supply side of the German book market? An analysis by ZEW shows that the market is going through a major transition. Traditional booksellers are currently confronted with the challenge of strengthening their position as service providers. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2763 09.10.2014 - ZEW (ole/ggr/fkr/jpr) China Economic Panel (CEP) by ZEW and Fudan University (Shanghai) - Economic Expectations for China Lose Ground: After temporary stabilisation in the past three months, macroeconomic expectations for China have suffered yet another setback, according to the results of the China Economic Panel (CEP). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the assessments of international financial analysts regarding China's macroeconomic outlook over the next twelve months, has deteriorated by 17.1 points in the current survey period (September 15 to 30, 2014). Now standing at a level of 1.7 points, the index has dropped below its long-term average of 14.9 points. Moving close to the base line, the indicator is signalling that optimistic and pessimistic expert assessments are now almost balanced. The current value is the lowest of the CEP Indicator since the survey began in mid-2013. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2762 29.09.2014 - ZEW (pse/srr/ggr/jpr) Using ICT Goes Hand in Hand with Decreasing Energy Consumption: In OECD countries, the spread of information and communication technologies (ICT) goes hand in hand with a reduction of energy consumption. Comparing the manufacturing and service sectors, it becomes apparent that in the manufacturing sector, using ICT is linked to reduced energy consumption. By contrast, no such correlation could be established in the service sector. This is the result of a study conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2759 29.09.2014 - ZEW (cfu/ggr/jpr) Bank Stress Test in Europe - Equity Base Is Still too Small: Before taking over responsibility for banking supervision in the eurozone by the end of 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) investigates the financial solidity of banks in a stress test. It is a much debated topic what measures against potential capital shortfalls the banks subjected to the stress test have already taken before the assessment begins. For a study dedicated to this concern, the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) has compared bank balance sheets from the fiscal years of 2012 and 2013. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2760 24.09.2014 - ZEW (mve/ggr/jpr) Taxation of Multinationals - Country-by-Country Reporting not Suitable to Combat Aggressive Tax Planning: Multinationals are frequently criticised for using tax havens and loopholes in international tax law to lower their tax burdens. Introducing a country-by-country reporting is discussed as one possible countermeasure against this problem. It requires multinationals to disclose certain key figures such as revenues, earnings, expenses, profits, and tax payments for each country they operate in. However, aggressive tax planning of multinational corporations would hardly be affected by a country-by-country reporting. This is the finding of a current study conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim. In particular, introducing such a reporting would involve high costs without necessarily generating any benefit. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2757 22.09.2014 - prognos/ZEW (mac/ggr/jpr) ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets: Sentiment Deteriorates Considerably: The German transport sector will face a decrease in transport volumes as well as stagnating, in some transport branches even declining transport prices in the next six months. This applies especially to land transportation to Eastern Europe, which is particularly affected by the Ukraine crisis. These are the primary findings of the Prognos/ZEW TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2014. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim survey some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon. Read more: http://www.zew.de/en/press/2756 4. RECENT PUBLICATIONS 4.1. ZEWnews English Edition September/October ZEWnews English Edition * Raw Material Consumption Continues to Rise Despite Greater Efficiency * Country-by-Country Reporting not Suitable to Combat International Profit Shifting * Rebound Effects Diminish Gains from Increased Energy Efficiency * Q&A: On the European Energy Union Proposal * ZEW Hosts International Conference to Celebrate Launch of the MaTax ScienceCampus * Opinion Regarding Youth Unemployment: Waging an Effective Battle Download as PDF file(*) (reference is given at the end of "RECENT PUBLICATIONS"): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/zn/en/zn09102014.pdf 4.2. Financial Market Report Switzerland Financial Market Report Switzerland November 2014 * Gloomy Economic Outlook for Switzerland * Inflation Expectations Recede Again * Interest-Rate Expectations Reflect the Economic Outlook * US Dollar Expected to Appreciate * Stock-Market Expectations Dialed Back * Export Momentum Suffering due to Eurozone Weakness * Special Question: Economic Growth in 2015 * Special Question: EUR/CHF Exchange-Rate Floor Download as PDF file(*): http://www.zew.de/FinancialMarketReportSwitzerland112014.pdf 4.3. ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083 Jan Hogrefe; Andreas Sachs Unemployment and Labor Reallocation in Europe Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14083.pdf 14-082 Philipp Eisenhauer; James J. Heckman; Edward Vytlacil The Generalized Roy Model and the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Social Programs Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14082.pdf 14-081 Philipp Eisenhauer; James J. Heckman; Stefano Mosso Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14081.pdf 14-080 Andreas Sachs; Werner Smolny Youth Unemployment in the OECD: The Role of Institutions Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14080.pdf 14-079 Stefan Angel; Benjamin Bittschi Housing and Health Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14079.pdf 14-078 Philipp Doerrenberg; Andreas Peichl; Sebastian Siegloch Sufficient Statistic or Not? The Elasticity of Taxable Income in the Presence of Deduction Possibilities Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14078.pdf 14-077 Miriam Maeder; Steffen Mueller; Regina T. Riphahn; Caroline Schwientek Intergenerational Transmission of Unemployment - Evidence for German Sons Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14077.pdf 14-076 Francesco Berlingieri; Ulrich Zierahn Field of Study, Qualification Mismatch, and Wages: Does Sorting Matter? Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14076.pdf 14-075 Christiane Reif; Dirk Ruebbelke; Andreas Loeschel Improving Voluntary Public Good Provision by a Non-Governmental, Endogenous Matching Mechanism: Experimental Evidence Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14075.pdf 14-074 Thomas Bonczek; Clemens Fuest; Michael Schroeder Who is Afraid of the Asset Quality Review? Potential Losses and Capital Shortfalls in the European Banking System Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14074.pdf 14-073 Katharina Finke; Clemens Fuest; Hannah Nusser; Christoph Spengel Extending Taxation of Interest and Royalty Income at Source - An Option to Limit Base Erosion and Profit Shifting? Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14073.pdf 14-072 Katrin Cremers; Fabian Gaessler; Dietmar Harhoff; Christian Helmers Invalid but Infringed? An Analysis of Germany's Bifurcated Patent Litigation System Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14072.pdf 14-071 Fabienne Rasel Combining Technology and Work Organization: An Analysis of Complementarity Between IT and Decentralization Across Firms of Different Size Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14071.pdf 14-070 Wen Chen; Thomas Niebel; Marianne Saam Are Intangibles More Productive in ICT-Intensive Industries? Evidence from EU Countries Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14070.pdf 14-069 Holger Stichnoth Short-run Fertility Effects of Parental Leave Benefits: Evidence from a Structural Model Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14069.pdf 14-068 Raphael Abiry; Karsten Reuss; Holger Stichnoth Completed Fertility Effects of Family Policy Measures: Evidence from a Life-Cycle Model Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14068.pdf 14-067 Frauke Schleer; Marcus Kappler The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the Role of Credit, and Implications for Potential Output Measurement Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14067.pdf 14-066 Frauke Schleer; Willi Semmler; Julian Illner Overleveraging in the Banking Sector: Evidence from Europe Download as PDF file(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp14066.pdf 4.4. Expertises/Research Reports Klaus Friesenbichler, Oliver Fritz, Werner Hoelzl, Florian Misch, Gerhard Streicher, and Mustafa Yeter (2014), The Efficiency of EU Public Administration in Helping Firms Grow, European Commission, DG Enterprise and Industry, Brussels. Additional information and download: http://www.zew.de/en/publications/7607 Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest, Dirk Neumann, Andreas Peichl, and Martin Ungerer (2014), Cost of Non-Europe Report - Common Unemployment Insurance Scheme for the Euro Area, Mannheim. Additional information and download: http://www.zew.de/en/publications/7588 IN GERMAN 4.5. ZEW-Finanzmarktreport (ZEW Financial Market Report) ZEW Financial Market Report November 2014 * Further Economic Slowdown Expected * ECB: Inflation Expectations Decrease * USA: High Level Assessment of the Situation Slightly Drops * Japan: Assessment of the Situation and Expectations Largely Unchanged * Great Britain: Economic Expectations Slightly Recover * Special Question I: Forecasts of Economic Growth * Special Question II: Drivers of Forecasts Download as PDF file (in German)(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/frep/112014.pdf 4.6. ZEW-Branchenreport Informationswirtschaft (ZEW Sector Report for the Information Economy) ZEW Sector Report for the Information Economy, Third Quarter 2014 * Economic Sentiment Remains Positive Despite Slight Downturn * Companies Attach Top Priority to Fast and Secure Networks Download as PDF file (in German)(*): http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/brepikt/201403BrepIKT.pdf (*) Please note: PDF files can be displayed with Adobe Acrobat Reader. The software can be downloaded for free: http://get.adobe.com/uk/reader 5. NEW RESEARCH PROJECTS Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers in the EU During the Recent Crisis - Perspectives for a Fiscal Union? http://www.zew.de/en/projects/1445 Restructuring and Extension of a Sample of the 2014 KfW Business Survey Panel http://www.zew.de/en/projects/1447 6. EVENTS 6.1. Public Events 18.11.2014 ZEW Lunch Debates: How to Best Fight European Youth Unemployment? Speaker: Prof. Dr. Holger Bonin (ZEW) Location of the event: Representation of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg to the European Union, Rue Belliard 60-62, B-1040 Brussels Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/1978 6.2. Scientific Events 30.10.2014 Mannheim Competition Policy Forum: Freedom of Media Under Restraints of European Competition Law and Policy Speaker: Prof. Dr. K. Peter Mailaender, M.C.J. (N.Y.U.) (Haver & Mailaender, Stuttgart) Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/1915 06.-07.11.2014 Conference: MaCCI Law and Economics Conference on Financial Regulation and Competition Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/1902 13.11.2014 ZEW Lectures on Economic Policy: Secular Stagnation or Coming Boom Speaker: Prof. Dr. Eric Bartelsman (University of Amsterdam) Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/2029 20.-21.11.2014 Conference: Conference on National Systems of Entrepreneurship Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/2012 05.-06.12.2014 Conference: Twelfth Annual Conference of the Association of Competition Economics Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim Additional information and contact: http://www.zew.de/en/events/2022 ____________________________________________________________________ IMPRINT Publisher: Centre for European Economic Research GmbH (ZEW) L 7, 1 - 68161 Mannheim - Germany - http://www.zew.eu Phone +49 621/1235-01 Fax +49 621/1235-255 Seat of the company: Mannheim - Local Court Mannheim HRB 6554 Chairwoman of the Supervisory Board: Theresia Bauer, MdL, Minister of Science, Research, and the Arts of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg Executive Directors: Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest, Thomas Kohl Editors: Yvonne Braeutigam, yvonne.braeutigam at zew.de ; Patrick Pilarek, pilarek at zew.de E-mail: newsletter-en at zew.de Editorial assistants: Janine Haubenreisser; Vincent von Uechtritz und Steinkirch; Jule Zenker Responsibility: Gunter Grittmann, grittmann at zew.de Legal note: http://www.zew.eu/legalnote You can subscribe/unsubscribe at any time - online via http://www.zew.eu/newsletter or - mail to zew-newsletter-englishedition-request at mx-assp2.zew.de Subject: (leave blank!) 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