ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Positive Sentiment Strengthens

In March 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) improved for the fourth time in a row. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe has increased by 13.6 points. It now stands at 49.9 points. This is the highest level of the indicator since October 2010. The debt crisis in the Eurozone, especially in Cyprus, as well as the difficulties in the government formation in Italy apparently seem to have no major impact on the economic expectations for the CEE region up till now. The optimistic assessment of the economic situation of the CEE region is also reflected by the positive sentiment regarding the macroeconomic development of important CEE countries. Economic expectations increase by 33.8 points for the Czech Republic and by 22.3 points for Poland.

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations on the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled monthly together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

The current survey is not only displaying an increase in expectations; the experts’ assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has also significantly improved in March 2013. The respective indicator has increased by 17.4 points to a level of 17.3 points. This is the most significant increase of the indicator since April 2011.

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia , Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.