This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters’ views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Depending on its outcome, the election can have a…
We use data on speeches held by members of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Executive Board to analyze whether the clarity of central bank communication has increased over time. Employing readability measures…
Financial markets are the backbone of the global economy, directing capital flows and resources to where they are needed. However, climate change and demands for greater environmental and social responsibility…
Ongoing global trends like climate change require firms to invest in projects that support their transformation. In order to unlock the huge sums of private capital necessary for these investments, the…
On 6 June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the main refinancing operations (MRO) rate from 4.5% to 4.25%. This decision followed a period of elevated interest rates intended to combat high inflation…
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo…
The ECB announced a new monetary policy strategy in July 2021. In contrast to the previous strategy of aiming at inflation close to, but below 2%, it now pursues a symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium…
In a randomized experiment embedded in a survey, I test the effects of variations in question wording and format on consumer response behavior and the corresponding inflation expectations. To this end, survey…
