ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Optimism Diminishes

In April 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) have decreased for the first time after four consecutive increases. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe has fallen by 20.4 points. At a level of 29.5 points, it still clearly remains in the positive range. The slowdown of economic sentiment might well reflect rising uncertainty regarding the future development of the eurozone’s debt crisis, among others in Cyprus. A downturn in economic expectations is being observed in almost all countries of the CEE region. Only Hungary’s economic expectations have increased by 11.6 points to a level of 22.8 points. The respective indicator of economic sentiment for the eurozone has decreased by 25.1 points.

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations on the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled monthly together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

Experts’ assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has also worsened in April 2013. The respective indicator has decreased by 11.3 points to a level of 6.0 points.

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the eurozone, individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly Financial Market Report CEE contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.