An increasing number of household and firm surveys ask for subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such…
In a lab experiment, we analyze the benefits of increasing competition on auction platforms hosting multiple auctioneers of a homogeneous good. We find that increasing competition by merging separated individual…
Die Anwendung des ermäßigten Mehrwertsteuersatzes auf Restaurant-Dienstleistungen wird nach jetzigem Rechtsstand zum Jahresende auslaufen. Diese Ausnahme war 2020 als vorübergehende steuerpolitische Hilfe für…
Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the…
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo…
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In…
We analyze the effectiveness of the German tax reduction on fuel prices (‘Tankrabatt’) that was introduced for three months, starting on 1 June 2022. We use the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator to…
E-commerce has gained importance over the last years and the COVID-19 pandemic has further strengthened this development. With the increasing opportunities that novel transport technologies, amongst them cargo…
The German pension system is facing major challenges. Demographic change, which is increasingly skewing the ratio of contributors to pensioners, is creating ever greater pressure for reform. The baby boomer…
