ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)- Economic Expectations for Central and Eastern Europe Decline

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) has declined by 10.6 points to 13.9 points in March 2011. The weaker expectations for the economic development in Poland and Slovakia have mainly burdened the outlook for the CEE region in the current survey. The disastrous incidents in Japan didn’t show any influence on the assessment of the polled financial market experts. The answers of the experts concerning the expected economic development in the CEE region on a six-month time horizon which were collected prior to the severe earthquake do not significantly differ from the answers collected after the initial strong earthquake.

The economic sentiment indicator for the CEE region and further financial market data have been surveyed monthly since 2007 by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna.

The indicator which reflects the assessment of the current economic conditions in the CEE region has dropped 16.1 points to 2.3 points in March.

The economic expectations for the Eurozone on a six-month time horizon have worsened in March stronger than the expectations for the CEE region. The respective indicator has decreased by 14.7 points and has achieved 7.9 points, The evaluation of the current economic situation in the Eurozone has improved by 3.6 points to a value of minus 3.5 points.

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individually analysed CEE countries or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the individual CEE countries and Austria as their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and the Erste Group Bank AG Vienna. The goal of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and since October 2010 of Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluation of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six months’ time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly "Financial Market Report CEE" contains the results for every CEE country and for Austria in detail.

For further information please contact

Dr. Mariela Borell, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-144, E-mail borell@zew.de