ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment - Cautious Optimism

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased by 22.6 points in December 2012. It now stands at a level of 6.9 points, thereby reaching positive territory for the first time since May 2012.

The indicator’s rise shows that the financial market experts expect the economic activity to stabilise until early summer 2013. Positive US economic data may have contributed to this assessment. They may have spurred hope that the global economy will gain momentum. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the Indicator of Economic Sentiment currently hovers only marginally above the zero line, the German economy will more likely bottom out instead of already experiencing an upswing within the next six months.

"The financial market experts forecast the development of the economic activity in 2013 with pre-Christmas optimism. Although the cooling down of the economic activity will last until the beginning of 2013, Germany will not have to face a recession. However, this only applies if the crises in the eurozone do not deepen once again," says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz.

The assessment of the current economic situation for Germany has remained almost unchanged in December. The respective indicator has increased by 0.3 points and now stands at the 5.7 points-mark.

Economic expectations for the Eurozone have increased in December as well. The corresponding indicator has risen by 10.2 points to 7.6 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the Eurozone has hardly changed. It now stands at the minus 79.9 points-mark (plus 0.4 points).

For further information please contact

Dr. Christian D. Dick, E-mail dick@zew.de

Frieder Mokinski,Phone +49 621/1235-143, E-mail mokinski@zew.de