Energy Prices for Major Customers Remain Stable Until Mid-2013

Major customers such as industrial companies, huge business enterprises, municipalities, and other final consumers demanding large amounts of energy can expect stable prices for electricity, oil, natural gas, and coal in the next six months. In the next five years, however, a rise in energy prices on a large scale lies ahead. This is the result of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer (ZEW Energiemarktbarometer), a survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). Every six months, some 200 experts from the energy sector give an assessment on the short- and medium-term trends of energy prices for major customers. The current survey was conducted at the end of 2012 (see end of the press release).

Regarding natural gas and coal, the clear majority of experts are certain that prices will stagnate until mid-2013. For natural gas, 65 per cent and for coal, 71 per cent of the surveyed experts expect an unchanged price level. Regarding wholesale prices for electricity and oil, experts are divided as to future developments. More than half of the surveyed energy experts expect a sideward movement of the prices for electricity and oil on a six-month horizon. At the same time, however, nearly 40 per cent forecast an increase of prices for electricity, and 34 per cent expect increasing prices for oil within the same period.

The energy market experts almost unanimously expect energy prices to increase on a large scale during the next five years. Regarding electricity prices, 81 per cent forecast that major customers will have to dig deeper into their pockets in the future. Nearly three quarters of the surveyed experts expect increasing prices for oil, and 66 per cent presume price hikes for natural gas. Expectations are only divided for coal. While 55 per cent of the experts expect increasing wholesale prices, 40 per cent believe that coal prices will rather stagnate within the next five years.

For further information please contact

Dr. Florens Flues, Phone +49  621/1235-218, E-mail flues@zew.de

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer (ZEW Energiemarktbarometer) is a semi-annual survey among some 200 experts from the areas of science and industry (energy supply, trade, and services industries, as well as regional suppliers such as EVU and green electricity providers). They are asked to give an assessment on the short- and medium-term trend on national and international energy markets. The complete results of the current survey (survey period November 2012) will be published in the ZEWnews 01/02 2013 (in German only).