ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment June 2004 - Downward Trend Ends
ResearchThe ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased slightly in June. The indicator now stands at +47.4 points, compared with +46.4 points in May.
"This result is disappointing. While it is good news that the downward trend in the economic sentiment has stopped for the present, hopes of a marked pickup have not been fulfilled, though some fundamental data point to an economic recovery," comments ZEW president Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz.
The indicator continues to signal cautious optimism for a further economic recovery. The high oil price, which is not least responsible for rising inflationary pressure and expectations of interest rate increases, still has its impact on the indicator. This month, the buoyant export demand, a strong volume of incoming orders in Germany as well as a calmer oil market influence the indicator positively.
The experts' evaluation of Germany's current economic situation is now again less pessimistic due to increasing industrial production and better than expected labour market data. Compared to -75.9 points last month, the indicator of the current economic situation increased to -69.8 points.
Economic sentiment for the euro zone decreased slightly in June. The indicator lost -2.4 points compared with last month's figures and now stands at +56.8 points. The corresponding indicator of the current economic situation in the euro zone continued to go up, from -50.6 points to -45.0 points.
310 analysts and institutional investors participated in this month's ZEW Financial Markets Survey which is conducted on a monthly basis by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim. The participants were asked about their medium-term expectations concerning economic activity and capital markets. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment shows the balance between positive and negative expectations regarding future economic activity in Germany within a timeframe of six months.
Contact
Volker Kleff, E-mail: kleff@zew.de
Dr. Claudia Stirböck, E-mail: stirboeck@zew.de
Dr. Friedrich Heinemann, Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-149, E-mail: heinemann@zew.de