ZEW/ProgTrans Survey on Transport Markets – Truck Toll, Rising Fuel Costs and EU Eastward Enlargement Cause Uncertainty

In the third quarter of 2004, uncertainty prevails on German and cross-border transport markets. This is due to the sharp increase in fuel prices, the imminent second attempt at introducing a truck toll in Germany at the beginning of next year, the rather weak German economy, and tougher competition among transport companies following the EU eastward enlargement.

The 300 experts surveyed within the framework of the latest TransportmarktBarometer (Transport Market Barometer) by ProgTrans/ZEW expect rising transport volumes in Germany and along cross-border transportation to Europe. Expectations regarding transport volume increases were high throughout the last survey in the second quarter of 2004, especially with regard to East European relations, but have been revised downwards slightly.

Since 1998, the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, and ProgTrans, Basel, have conducted a quarterly survey among experts from companies of the transport and loading industry asking them to assess trends in different transport sectors. The latest survey, carried out in the third quarter (survey period: 26.7.-20.8.2004), paints a mixed picture. Compared to the previous quarter, the majority of the experts give a more optimistic assessment of the transport volumes in the German transport market. They are even much more optimistic about currier, express and parcel (CEP) services. Growth expectations for combined traffic remain unchanged at a relatively high level.

The transport volumes of inner-European air and sea freight are expected to keep increasing, but on a much smaller scale than in the direction of North America and the Asia/Pacific region. The prospects for growing transport volumes en route to North America, in turn, are slightly weaker than those regarding Asia/Pacific relations.

Third-quarter price trend estimations are mixed. In view of the upcoming introduction of a truck toll, the experts forecast rising prices in German road freight and CEP transport. However, new competition from EU accession countries exerts increasing pressure on transport prices due to the vast pay gap. Expected price increases, especially in truck traffic and inland navigation, are thus notably subdued. By contrast, experts apparently consider CEP services not to be subject to this dampening effect.

More experts than in the previous quarter forecast growing prices for air and sea freight within Europe as well as en route to North America and the Asia/Pacific region since fuel surcharges and, sometimes, scarce capacities – particularly in intercontinental maritime navigation – have started taking effect.

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone +41(0)61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de