ZEW/Prognos Survey on Transport Markets – Prices for Overland Transport on the Rise

The development on German transport markets shows a clear picture regarding price expectations in the next six months: Except for air and sea freight, prices will spiral up in all markets, in some markets even strongly. This does not only affect road freight and courier, express and package (CEP) services in Germany, but also rail freight as well as combined traffic and inland shipping. However, expected transport volumes over the next half year differ widely from sector to sector. These are the primary findings of the Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the fourth quarter of 2015. In this quarterly survey, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey approximately 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their expectations for the development of transport volumes and prices on a six-month horizon.

Long-term cost-pushers like driver shortage and toll raises could be the reason for the expected prices increases. While the calculated price trend for air freight is rather stagnating, showing hardly any quarter-on-quarter changes, sea freight is affected by the bad economic news from China and Japan. Price expectations are in particular dropping for markets in North America and the Asia-Pacific region, following the decline in volume expectations.

The sentiment indicator for transport volumes is tending toward an all-time low for all sea freight markets. Expectations of growing transport volumes have taken some serious hits. While in the previous quarter around 60 per cent of the surveyed top executives were convinced that volumes for North America and the Asia-Pacific region will rise, this number has slumped to a meagre 30 per cent.

Volume expectations for road freight in Western and Eastern Europe are stagnating, while long- and short-distant road freight in Germany is slightly decreasing. According to experts, the transport volumes of inland shipping are also decreasing, while conventional rail freight will see slightly increasing volumes. This can be explained by low water levels, especially in the Rhine. The surveyed experts obviously assume that there will be shifts from inland shipping toward conventional rail freight. Estimations in regard to combined traffic are also cautiously optimistic.

The volumes for CEP services are expected to slightly decrease once again in Germany and Western Europe. Experts also expect decreasing volumes in Eastern Europe because client as well as company business are affected by the EU's economic sanctions against Russia and by shrinking income expectations for households.

The Prognos/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998, Prognos AG, Basel, and the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) have surveyed approximately 250 experts from the transport sector on a quarterly basis about the development of transport markets. Experts are asked to predict whether, in the coming six months, transport volumes and transport prices will (strongly/weakly) increase, (strongly/weakly) decrease, or remain the same. The survey examines national and cross-border transport between Germany and Western and Eastern Europe with regard to the following transport sectors: road freight, rail freight, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia-Pacific region.

For more information please contact

Dr. Martin Kesternich (ZEW), Phone +49 621 /1235-337, E-mail kesternich@zew.de

Hans-Paul Kienzler (Prognos AG), Phone +41 61 /3273 476, E-mail Hans-Paul.Kienzler@prognos.com