ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) – Price Increase in German Transport Diminishing

The German loading industry still has to anticipate rising prices, even if the price increases in general will diminish over the coming six months. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a quarterly survey among 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry, conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

The survey in the first quarter of 2007 shows that the experts are no longer as optimistic about the economic situation as in the previous quarters. On the other hand, they expect the costs to be significantly lower than last year, especially regarding the German truck toll, labour costs or diesel prices, which in January 2007 fell to a record low since June 2005. Taken together these tendencies lead to the assumption that the increase in transport costs as well as the sporadic capacity constraints of transport vehicles will not last for long and thus result in moderate price increases.

The assessment concerning the development of the transport volumes in the next six months suggests a first damper on the further development of the economy and the foreign trade, both being important determinants of the transport demand. The expectations for the different transport branches and relations vary. Trend forecasts of transport volumes regarding courier, express and parcel consignments, air freight and recently also parts of sea freight are rather conservative. Especially the assessment of the “classic” rail traffic and certain relations of waterway and combined traffic prove more optimistic than in the previous quarters. For the other transport branches, the experts expect a reduced increase in transport volumes compared to the fourth quarter of 2006.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler, E-mail: buehler@zew.de

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.