Expectations for Chinese Economy Continue to Rise

According to the current survey for March (28 February – 16 March 2017), the economic outlook for China has significantly improved by 18.7 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at 14.5 points (February 2017: minus 4.2 points). This is the first time since July 2016 that the indicator has significantly exceeded the long-term average of 5.1 points. The surveyed experts' assessment of the current situation at 3.3 points was one point lower than the previous month's assessment.

The point forecasts for GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2017 both rose and are now each at a level of 6.6 points. This constitutes an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to February's forecasts. The forecast for the entire year of 2017, however, remains unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The growth forecast for 2018, meanwhile, rose slightly to 6.4 per cent, though experts still anticipate the yearly growth rate to begin to decline from around mid-2017 onwards.

The surveyed experts consider both domestic consumption and exports to be the main drivers of growth. Predictions for these two sectors have, however, gone down.

When viewed together, the current sentiment and the point forecasts offer a slightly more positive assessment of the economic situation compared to February. The experts seem at least to be of the opinion that the threat of a considerable decline in growth is very small.

For further information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621 1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de