TransportmarktBarometer ProgTrans/ZEW (Transport Market Barometer) – Experts Scarcely Expect Permanent, Rail Strike-Related Loss of Rail Customers

A permanent movement of numerous rail users to road and inland waterway traffic due to the train drivers’ strike in the freight services of Deutsche Bahn is not to be expected. This is the result of a special question asked in the course of the recent TransportmarktBarometer ProgTrans/ZEW (Transport Market Barometer), a quarterly survey among around 300 transport market experts on their assessment of the development of transport markets and prices for the next six months. The survey was conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and ProgTrans AG, Basel in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The survey suggested that 12 per cent of the experts expect no shifting transport at all while 57 per cent estimate a merely temporary transfer from railways to roads and inland waterways. 18 per cent forecast a shifting to other rail freight operators and 13 per cent of the experts estimate a permanent loss of certain transport contingents for Deutsche Bahn.

The experts’ opinions on the further development of the prices for transport services presented in the recent survey are as unanimous as rare. For the road and combined transport as well as for intercontinental air and sea freight services, the experts forecast relatively high price increases. For rail freight traffic, inland waterway traffic and courier, express and package services (CEP), however, they assume only slight increases. Especially the development of separate cost factors such as energy costs, labour costs and special charges play a crucial role for the expected increase in transportation costs. Hence, the diesel prices have now reached new nominal record levels. The extent and incline of labour costs in railway and road transport are still discussed as well as the question about who shall bear the increased costs. The assessment of the development of the transport volume in the coming six months is marked by a certain insecurity regarding general economic and foreign trade trends, the key parameters of transport demand. In terms of single transport branches and different relations, the expectations vary: Merely for the road transport sector, experts estimate a remarkable growth of transported volume in all sub-markets and on a high level. The reserved assessment of railway transport may result from the strikes at Deutsche Bahn AG. Still the experts do not expect inland waterway transport, combined transport and CEP services to grow as strongly as they have done in the previous quarters either. Most of the assumptions concerning growing freight volume in air and sea freight services have been taken back.

The assessments of the separate transport relations partly differ: Inland traffic on roads, waterways and with CEP services is considered to re-enhance as well as air and sea freight services. In terms of international traffic, however, the experts’ expectations of the transport between Germany and the Asia/Pacific region have considerably diminished.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail:   Stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-213, E-mail: buehler@zew.de

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer

Since 1998, ProgTrans, Basle, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, conduct a quarterly survey among 300 executive decision makers from the transport and haulage industry regarding the developments on the transport market. The experts are asked for their assessment six months in advance concerning whether transport volumes and prices in Germany as well as for east and westbound European international transport are to (strongly/slightly) increase, (strongly/slightly) decrease, or remain unchanged. The examined transport markets are road haulage, railway goods traffic, inland navigation, air freight, combined transport, and courier, express, and parcel services. Moreover, the experts provide an assessment of the developments of air and sea freight from Germany to other European states as well as to the North American and Asia/Pacific regions.