ZEW/ProgTrans Survey Among Transport Market Experts – High Price for Diesel Makes Freight Costs Increase

Despite of the decreasing economic activity and the therefore smaller freight volumes, companies in Germany cannot expect decreasing transport prices within the next six months. On the contrary: except for rail transport, increasing prices are expected for all transport markets. The prices of air and maritime freight within the Asia/Pacific traffic, as well as on the North American route will increase especially strongly. A fundamental reason for this is the fuel prices, which have increased dramatically over the past months. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarkt Barometer (Transport Market Barometer), a survey among 300 managers from the transport and loading industry conducted every quarter by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, Germany, in cooperation with ProgTrans AG Basel.

The part of the experts surveyed by ZEW expecting increasing prices for all transport modes, except for rail transport, as well as for all transport routes, is considerable with 60 to 70 per cent. The prospects of increasing fuel prices, especially with Diesel, may be the reason for this. The prices for Diesel remain increasing, and in April 2008 they augmented by 18 per cent compared to April 2007.

The majority of the survey participants expect especially strong price increases for air and maritime freight, especially within the Asia/Pacific traffic and the North American route. Besides higher prices for kerosene, further surcharges, e.g. for safety, may be responsible for this. Only for the rail transport, lower transport prices compared to the previous quarter are expected. Here, more than 50 per cent of the surveyed experts expect a stabilization of transport prices. The growing competition with other transport modes, as well as the utilization of electricity as a “fuel” could explain the developments. The assessment of the transport activity within the next six months gives evidences of an up-coming pessimism concerning the further development of the economy and foreign trade as a fundamental determinant of the transport demand. But, the expectations for the individual transport sectors and routes are again quite different. With the road freight transport the majority expects increasing volumes. This also applies to the Asia/Pacific traffic with air and maritime freight. However, European and North American traffic with air and maritime freight are not expected to maintain their growing tendency. For the North American traffic, the experts even expect a clear decrease of freight volumes within both sectors. This may interpreted as an indication for an expected recession in the USA.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler, Phone: +49/621/1235-213, E-mail: buehler@zew.de