Significant Decline in Expectations

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped to a level of minus 24.7 points in October 2018. The indicator has thus reached the same low-point as in July of this year, being at its lowest reading since August 2012. Also, with 14.1 points, the extent of the month-to-month decline is remarkably strong. Only once in the recent past did the indicator fall more strongly, namely after the Brexit vote in Great Britain in July 2016. The indicator’s current value is far below the long-term average of 22.8 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany decreased by 5.9 points, leaving the corresponding indicator at 70.1 points.

“Expectations for the German economy are dampening above all due to the intensifying trade dispute between the USA and China. The resulting negative expectations on German exports are now beginning to show in the actual development of exports. A further negative influence on economic and export expectations is the danger of a ‘hard Brexit’, which is becoming ever more likely. Last but not least, the situation of the governing coalition in Berlin is perceived to have become more unstable, which also weighs on economic sentiment,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the Eurozone also experienced a very significant drop, with the corresponding indicator falling by 12.2 points to a current reading of minus 19.4 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the Eurozone has increased slightly by 0.3 points to a level of 32.0 points.

Inflation expectations for the Eurozone are rising again. The corresponding indicator now stands at 33.2 points in October, after climbing 9.2 points compared to September. Meanwhile, expectations for short-term interest rates in the Eurozone have increased, with the corresponding indicator rising by 8.3 points to a reading of 18.5 points.

For more information please contact:

Frank Brückbauer, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-148, E-mail frank.brueckbauer@zew.de

Dr. Frederick Eidam, Phone +49 (0)621-1235-330, E-mail frederick.eidam@zew.de

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-368, E-mail michael.schroeder@zew.de

More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2018 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)