The ZEW Energiemarktbarometer - Energy Price Situation Remains Tense

Energy experts expect rising prices for natural gas, coal, electricity and crude oil over the next six months. The vast majority of them estimate that even in the long term (over the coming five years), the costs of those energy sources will grow. Only a small minority forecasts that energy prices will fall. This is the result of the recent ZEW Energiemarktbarometer (Energy Market Barometer), a biannual survey among 200 energy market experts carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

About 83 per cent of the interviewed experts estimate increasing gas prices within the next six months. However, 15 per cent assume that the prices will remain the same in the short run and only a minority of about 2 per cent of the interviewed experts believe in sinking gas prices. 78 per cent of those questioned expect higher gas prices over the next five years. In the long term, 17 per cent estimate unchanged prices while only five per cent of the experts consider falling prices to be likely.

The vast majority of the experts (60 per cent) believe in rising coal prices within a six-month period. Stagnating prices are expected by 38 per cent and decreasing coal prices were forecasted by just two per cent of the participating experts. 78 per cent of the energy experts assume that prices for coal will increase within the next five years. Just 17 per cent estimate unchanged prices while five per cent assume that the prices for coal will fall in the long term.

The assessment of the development of electricity prices shows a clear trend as well. Approximately 70 per cent of the experts estimate rising electricity prices over the coming six months. Further 29 per cent expect the prices to be at today’s level in the short term. Only a tiny minority assumes that electricity prices will decrease. Even 93 per cent of the participating experts believe that over the coming five years, the prices for electricity will grow. This clear majority may reflect the energy industry’s investment uncertainties. Against the background of necessary power plant investments in the near future, these uncertainties might refer to the nuclear phase-out, to the political conflicts concerning the construction of new coal-fired power plants, but also to the EU Commission’s plans to auction CO2 emission certificates in the future.

Another topic of the survey was the high oil prices. In January, the results of the ZEW Energiemarktbarometer had shown that in the short term, experts had estimated an easing or stagnating situation on the oil market. By now, these hopes have faded. According to the experts, the oil price will stay at record highs for the time being. Just about eight per cent expect that the oil price will fall within the next couple of months or years. 61 per cent of the interviewed experts, however, believe that the price per barrel is likely to increase over the next six months. 30 per cent estimate that the oil price will stay at the current level. For the coming five years, 17 per cent of the participants in the survey expect unchanged prices while three quarters of the interviewed experts assume continuously rising prices.

For further information please contact

Dr. Ulf Moslener, E-mail: moslener@zew.de

Nikolas Wölfing, Phone +49 621/1235-217, E-mail: woelfing@zew.de