ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - Economic Expectations Diminish Considerably

The October Financial Market Test Switzerland, carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse, reveals that the economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated considerably. The ZEW-CS-Indicator of economic expectations fell by 46.7 points to -91.1 points. Only 2.2 percent of the respondents expect the economic environment to improve over a six-month horizon.

The experts conveyed a somewhat more pessimistic assessment of the current economic picture compared with the previous month’s survey. However, roughly three-fourths of the financial market specialists still view the prevailing economic situation as neutral. As in the previous month, the financial market analysts foresee a decline of inflation rates on the six-month horizon. An increasing number of experts expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates within the next six months. The gold price is attributed further upward potential.

The downbeat economic outlook is assumed to affect the labor market situation, with 82 percent of respondents predicting that the unemployment rate in Switzerland will increase.

Within the scope of this month’s "special question," the financial market experts were asked to convey their point of view regarding the financial market crisis. The responses show that the vast majority of analysts anticipate further consolidation in the banking sector in the United States and in Europe. While most survey participants advocate stricter government regulations, measures such as a ban on short sales are viewed in a contentious light (see link below).

Detailed results

More detailed results - including survey participants' assessment of developments in other countries - can be found in this month's edition of the "Switzerland Financial market report" (please note that the URL is case sensitive):

entry4.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/p/d/de/schweiz/konjunktur/media/pdf/cs_zew_fmr_oct08_en.pdf

For further information please contact

Dr. Gunnar Lang (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-372, E-mail: lang@zew.de

Fabian Heller (Credit Suisse), Phone +41/44/33209061, E-mail: fabian.heller@credit-suisse.com