Expectations for Chinese Economy Improve

In the current June survey (9–17 June 2020), the CEP indicator climbs 15.7 points to a new value of 30.5 points, which is only slightly below the level of April 2020. The CEP indicator, based on the China Economic Panel (CEP) in cooperation with Fudan University, Shanghai, reflects the economic expectations of international financial market experts for China on a 12-month basis.

“The outlook for 2021 is still far below average despite a predicted normalization of GDP growth rates,” says Dr. Michael Schröder, senior researcher in the Research Department “International Finance and Financial Management” at ZEW Mannheim and project manager of the CEP survey.

“In the June survey, the forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP) were again slightly revised downwards compared to the previous month. Only for the second quarter, which is now coming to an end, do the experts expect better quarterly growth figures than in the previous month. Instead of 0.5 per cent, they now expect an average growth rate of 1.0 per cent. GDP forecast for the entire year of 2020 has been revised down from 2.1 per cent in the last month to currently 1.8 per cent. The experts are also somewhat less optimistic for 2021, lowering their expectations for real GDP growth from 5.6 per cent in the previous month to 5.2 per cent.

A slight majority of the respondents (54.1 per cent) still rates the current economic situation as bad or very bad. Yet the assessment has improved slightly compared to the previous month. “Overall, the results suggest that the currently rather unfavourable situation will improve significantly over the next 12 months. However, despite expectations of a gradual normalization in 2021, real GDP growth is still likely to be well below the growth rates of recent years,” summarises Michael Schröder.