ZEW Energy Market Barometer - Climate Change Causes Blackouts in European Power Stations

In the face of climate change, power stations in Europe are likely to increasingly reduce their energy production in the future. On the basis of global warming, which also causes heat waves and droughts in Europe during the summer, especially atomic power plants will be forced to curb electricity production. At this point, however, the question whether the loss of production will impair the security of power supply cannot be clearly answered. This is the result of the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer survey among around 200 energy market experts from science and industry, which is conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) on a biannual basis.

Compared to the current situation, 30 percent of the experts involved in the survey expect a highly increasing proportion of temporary losses in the production of nuclear energy over the coming 30 to 40 years due to climate change. This is especially caused by the fact that cooling water, which is essential for nuclear energy generation, usually derives from rivers. If the rivers heat up following ongoing heat, as it was the case in 2003, they drop out as a means of cooling water reservoir. 44 percent of the survey participants expect the loss of output in nuclear power stations caused by heat to occur slightly more often than today. 26 percent of the experts prognosticate that global warming will not have negative effects on nuclear energy production.

However, the experts do not agree on whether the increasing proportion of losses in nuclear power stations will affect the security of supply for energy customers. 51 percent of the survey participants assume that increasing nuclear power station blackouts will impair energy supply to a higher degree than today. In contrast, 49 percent of the survey participants are convinced that a higher proportion of losses in nuclear power stations will not lead to energy shortage. The differing expectations given by the experts are probably due to insecurities regarding the development in the energy sector. In this context, the time of withdrawal from nuclear energy, the building of modern power stations, the expansion of renewable energies as well as the potential of future energy savings are essential.

There are further sources of energy which depend on the climatic water levels in rivers. For instance, coal-fired stations use water from rivers for cooling purposes and in hydraulic power stations water is used to drive turbines in order to generate electricity. In this context, the majority of the experts involved also expect increasing losses in electricity production for coal-fired stations and hydraulic stations. However, in this case the impact of climate change is assessed to be slightly less severe than for nuclear power plants. 57 percent, respectively 61 percent of the survey participants are convinced that hydraulic stations and coal-fired stations in Europe will experience more losses in output than today. At 69 percent, respectively 64 percent, the majority of energy market experts are still convinced that the loss of production in hydraulic or coal-fired stations caused by climate change will not impair the security of supply for energy customers to a higher degree than today.

The energy supply in many European countries highly depends on a single energy source. France, for instance, emphasises on nuclear power, energy in Austria mainly derives from hydraulic power and Germany still uses coal energy to a high proportion. Moreover, the integration of national energy markets only proceeds very slowly. In this context, the results of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer show that the energy markets in Europe might be put under intensified pressure to adapt to the new situation caused by climate change. Around 80 percent of the experts involved in the survey assess a further expansion of renewable energies to be an appropriate measure to cope with this pressure.

ZEW Energy Market Barometer

Some 200 academics and industry experts from energy supply, trading and service companies are surveyed on a biannual basis for the ZEW Energy Market Barometer. They are asked to share their expectations regarding short- and mid-term developments in national and international energy markets.

Contact

Nikolas Wölfing, Phone: +49/621/1235-217, E-mail: woelfing@zew.de

Prof.  Dr. Andreas Löschel, Phone: +49/621/1235-200, E-Mail: loeschel@zew.de