Energy Prognosis:
ResearchGermany to Reach Important Goals in Climate Policy by 2030 - But Has to Face Increasing Risk Regarding Energy Supply
Primary energy consumption in Germany will decrease by 21 percent by 2030 as compared to 2007. The main reason for this is a considerable increase in energy productivity found in the 2009 energy prognosis initiated by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWI). The energy prognosis was conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim in collaboration with the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) of Stuttgart University and the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Essen.
Demand for electricity will rise until 2030, most notably due to the continuing trend towards single-person households. In order to cover the increasing energy consumption in Germany, more energy will have to be imported.
Germany’s dependence on natural gas imports will increase as well, simultaneously raising supply risk concerning primary energy. However, the share of renewable energies on primary energy consumption and power generation will be larger as well. Germany will thus easily comply with the Carbon Emission Reduction Commitment it made as part of the Kyoto Protocol. Compared to the reference year of 1990, Germany will be able to reduce its emissions by about 34 percent by 2020 and by about 44 percent by 2030. Germany is also making progress in the advancement of alternative energies. The EU policy to cover 18 percent of total energy consumption with renewable energies by 2020 will not be reached. There will only be a small margin of two percentage points.
The study also analyses the impact of extending the lifetime of nuclear power plants, indicating that an extended lifetime will have positive effects on both the economy and energy industry. This applies to an increase in added value, energy output, employment, as well as to a reduction in the pricing of CO2 certificates and electricity. It will also lead to a higher security of energy supply and lower greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Extending the renewable energies will not be affected by an extended lifetime for nuclear power plants.
Download the Energy Prognosis: Development of Energy Markets until 2030 (in German only)
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For further information please contact
Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-200, E-Mail: loeschel@zew.de
Dr. Tim Mennel, E-Mail: mennel@zew.de