Direct Democracy in Germany - Referendums Are "Contagious" to Neighbouring Municipalities

Instruments of direct democracy such as citizens' initiatives and referendums have an encouraging effect on neighbouring municipalities: If a municipality conducts a referendum, the probability of a referendum increases for neighbouring municipalities. This is the result of a recent study conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

The study is the first to analyse interactions within political systems that allow citizens to directly and bindingly influence municipal decisions. The question is whether or not German citizens' initiatives and referendums tend to encourage direct democracy in neighbouring municipalities. A municipality is defined as neighbouring if its borders are no more than 50 kilometres away. Viewing data from the period of 2002 to 2009, the scientists have analysed more than 11,000 municipalities from all federal states, excluding Berlin and Hamburg.

As it shows, the probability of a referendum significantly increases if a neighbouring municipality already has conducted a referendum once. Further factors that make municipal referendums more likely are a high population figure, a large share of inhabitants above the age of 65 and a large share of left-wing voters.

In another step, the effect of referendums were analysed. Frank Streif, co-author of the study and scientist of the ZEW Research Department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance", says: "Citizens' referendums attract more attention than initiatives. They increase the probability of direct democratic activities in neighbouring municipalities to a greater extent than 'simple' initiatives."

Media information seems to play an important role in this regard. "Referendums have a particularly strong effect on neighbouring municipalities with a higher than average number of households reading local newspapers," Streif further explains. A well-known example are the citizens' initiatives on the railway project "Stuttgart 21" that have inspired many more initiatives in the surrounding areas.

For more information please contact

Frank Streif, Phone +49(0)621/1235-398, E-Mail streif@zew.de