Economic Outlook for China Characterised by Insecurity

Expectations concerning the economic development in China have again become more pessimistic in the June CEP survey (June 27 – July 6). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has dropped by 4.1 points to a current reading of exactly zero points.

The indicator thus manoeuvres significantly below the long-term average of six points. However, there is a striking range of upward and downward fluctuation, indicating substantial insecurity concerning the economic development.  Insecurity is albeit limited to the CEP Indicator and has no considerable effect on the point forecasts of the annual growth rates of Chinese GDP. Experts still expect an annual GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in the current year and 6.4 per cent in 2017, reflecting the targets of the Chinese government's five-year plan.

An upcoming phase of economic weakness is primarily reflected by the decreasing expectations concerning Chinese exports. Forecasts concerning domestic consumption and imports have decreased as well, but are still on a comparably high level.

Expectations are particularly poor for the construction sector. With the exception of Hong Kong, however, experts forecast rising real estate prices and a robust economic development in all major metropolitan regions.

For further information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621 1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de