Energy Mix in the German Electricity Market - Gas Power Plants are the Future

The planned exit from nuclear energy and the need to renew Germany’s power plants, will lead to a significant change in the energy mix in Germany's electricity production. Gas in particular will benefit from this development.

Among the participants of the current ZEW Energiemarktbarometer (Energy Market Barometer), about 84 per cent expect gas power plants' share in German electricity production to rise in the next 10 years. Having said this, coal will not benefit from the demand for new power stations. This is the opinion expressed by approximately 200 experts from the field of science and from companies involved in energy supply, trade and service. The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim has surveyed such experts on a biannual basis since early 2003. 54 per cent of the respondents forecast stagnation in the share of brown coal used in Germany's electricity production, 47 per cent expect use of hard coal to stagnate. 37 per cent expect to see a reduction in the use of brown coal, and 42 per cent foresee falls in the use of hard coal.

Currently, the most important power plants for production of Germany's base load electricity demands are nuclear, as well as brown coal and hard coal power plants. In view of the exit from nuclear energy and the expected decline in the use of coal powered plants, it must be asked which other energy source, aside from gas, is suited to meet the future demand for electricity in Germany. Among the renewable energies, biomass is most likely to play a significant role in meeting the emerging base load requirement.

These are no longer regarded by participants of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer merely as important sites for energy production. Given the now highly technical nature of renewable energy plants, 77 per cent of the respondents expect that in the next ten years, such plants will produce an important product for export.

Contact

Dr. Ulf Moslener, E-mail: moslener@zew.de