Expectations for Chinese Economy Continue to Recover

According to the most recent survey for September (6–20 September 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved again, rising by 8.3 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, currently stands at 8.3 points (August 2017: 0.0 points), coming in once again slightly above the long-term average of 5.1 points.

The point forecasts for the growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018 have also increased from 6.6 per cent to a current reading of 6.7 per cent. The forecasts for 2017 have, however, remained unchanged at 6.8 per cent.

The assessment of the current economic situation has once again improved and currently stands at 25.0 points. This corresponds to an increase of 1.8 points compared to the previous month. This is the highest value recorded since the survey began. Since the beginning of this year the assessment of the economic climate in China has gone up by 25 points.

"All in all, the outlook for the Chinese economy has improved significantly over the last few months and stabilised at a relatively high level. A year ago, there were still fears that Chinese economic growth would weaken considerably, posing a threat to the global economy. These fears seem to have faded further into the background," explains Dr. Michael Schröder, Senior Researcher in ZEW’s Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management" and project leader of the CEP survey.

For further information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-368, michael.schroeder@zew.de