Expectations for Chinese Economy Improve Slightly

According to the current survey for February (conducted between 31 January 2017 and 17 February 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved slightly. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has risen by 1.7 points compared to the previous month to a current total of minus 4.2 points. This falls far below the current long-term average of 4.8 points.

Experts have a more favourable view of the current situation. The corresponding indicator rose by 1.9 points to a level of 4.3 points. This is higher than the previous average of minus 5.5 points. This combination of expectations and an assessment of the current situation paints a moderately positive view of China's economic situation. This marginally improved economic outlook could be the result of renewed more favourable assessments of China's exports. The indicator for export expectations climbed by ten points to reach a new level of 25.8 points. At 42.5 points, however, domestic consumption is still assessed more favourably.

Just as it was in January this year, annual growth for 2017 is predicted to be at a level of 6.5 per cent, whereas the predicted growth for 2018 has decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 6.3 per cent.

Experts again anticipate an upward trend in property prices across almost all regions included in the survey. Pricing pressure seems to be particularly severe in Shanghai and Beijing. In keeping with these pricing expectations, the economic expectations for the construction sector are once again slightly more positive. However, the construction sector still comes in last overall out of all sectors considered in the survey.

For further information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621 1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de