Expectations for Chinese Economy Rise for the Third Consecutive Time
China Economic Panel
According to the current survey for April (5 April – 19 April 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved by 3.2 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at 17.7 points (March 2017: 14.2 points). This is the third consecutive time that the indicator rises. As a result, the CEP Indicator has now significantly exceeded the long-term average of 5.4 points. Due to this development, the highest level recorded since the introduction of the survey (21.4 points in June 2014) seems to be within reach.
The assessment of the current economic situation has improved considerably by 14.3 points and now stands at 17.6 points. This is the most positive assessment of the economic situation since the introduction of the survey in July 2013.
The point forecasts have also improved. For instance, the forecast for the second quarter of 2017 has increased from 6.6 per cent to 6.7 per cent. For the whole of 2017, the respondents expect an average growth in China's gross domestic product of 6.6 per cent. For 2018, experts forecast an average growth of 6.5 per cent. For both forecasts this constitutes an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey (March 2017).
Domestic consumption – one of the main drivers of growth – should benefit from a significant expected increase in employment. According to the financial experts, foreign trade is also likely to improve again.
In terms of the various sectors, high hopes rest on the information technology sector as well as on insurance companies and investment banks. The automotive and the construction sectors as well as consumer-oriented sectors are also viewed very positively.
"Given the current forecasts and expectations, we could see the Chinese economy move back into calmer waters with a return to the usual high growth rates," says Dr. Michael Schröder, Senior Researcher in the ZEW Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management" and project leader of the CEP survey.
For further information please contact
Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621 1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de