Expected Medium-Term Rise in Energy Prices – Except for Coal

The price of almost all energy sources is set to rise over the next five years. While electricity, crude oil and natural gas are expected to become more expensive, coal proves to be the exception, displaying a medium-term trend of stable to decreasing prices. In the short-term, that is until mid-2017, however, a more stable price structure is predicted for all energy sources. These are the central findings of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a biannual survey conducted among approximately 200 energy market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

A vast majority of respondents anticipate increases in the price of electricity (77 per cent), oil (75 per cent), and natural gas (65 per cent) over the next five years. Medium-term coal price predictions tell a different story. 40 per cent of those surveyed believe the price of coal will stagnate over the next five years. Though 30 per cent of the surveyed experts still expect prices to rise, almost as many respondents (28 per cent) expect them to decrease; this number is higher than the previous record high from the last survey.

A clear majority of the surveyed experts predict that the price of oil (55 per cent), natural gas (66 per cent), and coal (70 per cent) will remain unchanged over the next six months. 49 per cent of the energy market experts even expect electricity prices to stagnate in the short term. Nevertheless, the percentage of those who anticipate higher prices rose by 17 percentage points to 35 per cent. One of the driving forces behind this increase are rising price predictions for electricity in the wholesale market. Back in 2016, wholesale prices began to rise slightly after being in decline for a long period of time.

About the ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is a biannual survey conducted among approximately 200 experts from academia and the private sector (including energy supply, trading, and service providers). Participants are surveyed on their expectations concerning short- (six-month horizon) and medium-term (five-year horizon) developments in national and international energy markets and prices. A summary of the full results from the latest survey (for the survey period of November 2016) can be found in the German edition of the ZEWnews or online at: www.zew.de/WS106

For further information please contact:

Philipp Massier, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-332, E-mail massier@zew.de