Experts Expect Increasingly Dynamic GDP Growth Throughout the Year

The growth of the German gross domestic product (GDP) will accelerate in 2013. For the first and second quarter of 2013, experts expect a median GDP growth of 0.2 and 0.3 per cent. In the third quarter an increase by 0.4 per cent is expected. This is the result of the analysis of a special question for the quarterly ZEW survey among financial market experts conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim. The participants of the survey are asked to forecast the strength of GDP growth in the previous, the current and the subsequent quarter. In April 2013, 158 financial market experts participated in this survey.

The experts are also asked to assess the probability of a negative GDP growth in Germany. In the April survey, experts consider the risk of a negative GDP growth in the first half of 2013 to be significantly smaller than at the beginning of the year. The January survey suggested a 17.5 per cent probability of a negative GDP trend in the first quarter and a 12.4 per cent probability in the second quarter. The participants in the current survey, however, assess the probability of a negative GDP trend in the first and second quarter at merely ten per cent.

To sum up, the results of the ZEW financial market test in January 2013 reveal a cautiously positive view on the first three quarters of the current year. The economic development will become more dynamic throughout the year, and the risk of a recession will decline further.

Contact for more information

Frieder Mokinski, Phone: +49/621/1235-143, E-mail mokinski@zew.de

Special Question of the ZEW Financial Market Test Concerning Economic Growth

The results of the special question of the ZEW Financial Market Test concerning economic growth are based on both point forecasts and probability forecasts. The experts give their estimations (In the second quarter, the German GDP will likely grow by … per cent) and assess the probability of a certain result (In my eyes, the probability that the German GDP growth will range between 0.00 and 0.24 per cent in the second quarter lies at … per cent).