IT Trend Index Conducted by ZEW and LEXTA - Experts Expect Costs in IT to Further Decrease

The costs for ICT components will be lower at the end of 2009 compared to the end of 2008. This is the result of the recently released IT Trend Index conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and the Lexta Consultants Group in Berlin. The IT Trend Index reaches 23.4 points at the end of 2008. Thus, the indicator is still clearly in the negative, which is an obvious sign for declining prices. On average, the 200 IT experts surveyed by the ZEW and Lexta expect prices to decrease by 3.3 percent in the coming twelve months

However, the extent of the price cuts is assessed very differently for the sub-areas office communication, computing centres and database systems as well as SAP-applications. While the experts predict price cuts of 3 percent in the area of office communication, they expect prices for equipment needed by computing centres to decrease by up to 6.4 percent. Only for database systems and SAP-applications do the experts predict prices to slightly increase by 1.2 percent by the end of this year.

The IT Trend Index consists of the three sub-indices office communications, computing centres as well as database systems and SAP-applications. Compared to the survey conducted at the beginning of 2008, those different sub-indices of the IT Trend Index show significant shifts. This represents a contrast to the minor changes in the total index. The sub-index showing the prices for office communications fell by 14.1 percent in the fourth quarter 2008 and currently stands at minus 32.0 points. This means, that a greater share of experts now prognosticates a fall of prices in office communication within the coming twelve months. Compared to the survey in the first quarter 2008, the sub-index for the development of prices in computing centres clearly increased from minus 57.6 points to currently 44.5 points. On balance, the experts also expect decreasing prices for computing centres, although they do so to a lesser degree. The sub-index for the price development of databases and SAP-applications stands at 28.2 points in the fourth quarter 2008. This represents an increase of more than twelve points compared to the first quarter 2008. This means, that a rising majority of the IT experts expects an increase in prices concerning databases and SAP-applications.

For further information please contact

Dr. Jörg Ohnemus, Phone: +49/621/1235-354, E-mail: ohnemus@zew.de