Joint Diagnosis Spring 2012: German Economy on the Rise – European Debt Crisis Intensifies Further
ResearchAfter a weak winter half year, the German economy is on the rise again. The institutes forecast an increase of the real GDP by 0.9 per cent for 2012 and by 2.0 per cent for 2013. The situation on the labour market will improve further and the number of unemployed persons will decrease to 2.8 million in 2012.
The state’s deficit is likely to drop to 0.6 per cent. Since the public debt is quite high with 80 per cent, the institutes assess the waned efforts of consolidation as critical. The debt and confidence crisis within the Eurozone continues intensifying. Projections of the deficit in Italy, Ireland, and Spain revealed that a stabilization of the current situation in these countries could only be achieved, if the proposed reforms are really effective and if there is no other loss of confidence on the capital markets.
Joint Economic Forecast Group consists of:
ifo Institut – Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle at ETH Zurich (Business Cycle Research)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
for the medium-term forecast in co-operation with:
Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim
Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
For further information please contact
Dr. Marcus Kappler, Phone +49 621/1235-157, E-mail kappler@zew.de