Long-Term Increases in Energy Prices

Current trends suggest that prices for all energy sources will increase within the coming five years. This is the case for prices in Germany, as well as for worldwide energy prices. While prices for electricity, crude oil and natural gas are expected to go up, coal prices should to a large extent remain stable. This is the result of the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a survey carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, among energy market experts.

Just over half of the survey participants predicted global increases in crude oil and natural gas prices over the next five years, while just under 30 per cent expected prices to stagnate. Although far fewer of the surveyed experts predicted price increases compared to the results of the survey conducted six months ago, the majority of experts still expected to see an upward trend in prices.

A similar trend is visible regarding electricity prices in Germany, with 72 per cent of the surveyed experts expecting a long-term increase and eight per cent even predict a strong increase. By contrast, just 13 per cent expected to see prices to stagnate. When it comes to global coal prices, however, the 24 per cent anticipating higher prices is almost balanced out by the 32 per cent predicting a drop in prices. Meanwhile, 44 per cent of the experts expected prices to remain stable.

The short-term predictions for all energy sources, however, paint a very different picture. The majority of experts expected natural gas prices (65 per cent) and coal prices (73 per cent) to stagnate in the coming six months. The prices for crude oil (56 per cent) and electricity (51 per cent) are also expected to stagnate.

ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is the only panel of its kind in Germany made up of experts in the energy industry. The survey has been conducted every six months since 2002 and reflects the participants’ assessments regarding current issues in the energy industry and in energy policy. The current survey (November 2017) is based on 168 responses from German participants.

For further information please contact:

Robert Germeshausen, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-218, E-mail robert.germeshauen@zew.de