Major Slump in Economic Outlook
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decrease of 7.9 points in June 2018 and now stands at minus 16.1 points. This is the lowest reading since September 2012 and well below the long-term average of 23.3 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany decreased by 6.8 points, leaving the corresponding indicator at 80.6 points.
“The recent escalation in the trade dispute with the United States as well as fears over the new Italian government pursuing a policy which potentially destabilises the financial markets have left their mark on the economic outlook for Germany. On top of this, German industry has been reporting worse than expected figures for exports, production and incoming orders for April. As a result, the economic outlook for the next six months has worsened considerably,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.
The financial market experts’ expectations regarding economic development in the Eurozone have experienced an even sharper drop than those for Germany. The corresponding indicator currently stands at minus 12.6 points, 15.0 points below the reading from the previous month. Meanwhile, the indicator for the current economic situation in the Eurozone has sunk by a dramatic 16.2 points to a level of 39.9 points. This decline in the outlook for the Eurozone can largely be attributed to a far more pessimistic assessment of the Italian economy. Economic expectations for Italy fell 31.7 points to a level of minus 48.4 points, while the assessment of the current situation in Italy saw a 14.3-point drop down to minus 32.8 points.
For more information please contact:
Frank Brückbauer, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-148, E-mail frank.brueckbauer@zew.de
Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-368, E-mail michael.schroeder@zew.de
Lea Steinrücke, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-311, E-mail lea.steinruecke@zew.de
More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2018 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)