ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer - Following Introduction of the Toll, Transport Prices Have Once Again Restabilised

Following the full introduction of the toll, price developments in transport markets have returned to normal. As a consequence, companies with a demand for transport services are likely to face stronger price increases in the coming six months.

The economic development of Germany and its trade partners, as well as future trend in oil prices, remain uncertain. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer, a quarterly survey carried out by progtrans, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, among the executives of 300 companies in the transport economy and loading industry.

The experts interviewed in the first quarter of 2015 expect stable or slightly rising prices for road freight and courier, express and package (CEP) services over the next six-month period. The forecast price increases are least pronounced in freight transport from and to Eastern Europe. This is most probably due to local low-wage competition. Rail cargo, wagon load and combined traffic are expected to record slightly growing prices similar to those in the road freight sector. The proportion of experts forecasting price increases in air and sea freight has decreased year-on-year, it remains, however, at a comparably high level. In contrast, only a few of those surveyed expect that inland shipping prices will rise.

Estimations concerning the development of transport volumes in the coming six months are variable. This is reflected in uncertainties about economic recovery. In comparison to previous quarters, the proportion of experts expecting an increase in transport volumes in the German domestic market and in cross-border transport travelling to Western Europe is generally stable, or else slightly declining. Although in the past, this market has typically been deemed comparably dynamic, experts have more recently taken a sceptical view of potential growth in the volume of transport travelling to Eastern Europe. It is only the prospects for rail transport (in general) and domestic CEP services which are seen in a more positive light than in the previous quarter. Growth prospects for air and sea freight are again viewed optimistically with growth expectations particularly high for air and sea freight travelling to the Asia/ Pacific region.