Progtrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer - Rising Optimism in the German Transport Industry Despite Oil Price Increases

Despite growing oil prices, the mood in the German transport industry seems to be brightening up again. This is the result of the Transport Market Barometer published on a quarterly basis by progtrans, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim.

In the current survey, the experts express significantly more optimistic economic expectations than in the previous quarters.

300 top executives of the transport and shipping industry participated in the August 2005 survey. Their expectations for the development of transport volumes in the next six months indicate a careful optimism regarding the economic development. The experts assume, for instance, that freight volumes will increase in almost every transport sector. Rail cargo and inland shipping constitute the only two sectors, where transport volume forecasts are very restrained.

Growth expectations for national transportation mainly range on a low level. With regard to Western European transport, the experts paint a slightly more optimistic picture than in the previous quarter. Looking to Eastern Europe, they expect a relatively improved development in demand. On an intercontinental level - particularly regarding transport to and from the Asian/Pacific region - the experts assume great dynamics.

The six-month price expectations have mainly been influenced by three developments, which partly work in opposite directions: the strong growth in volume in different transport sectors and relations, the marked oil price increase as well as the increasing competition with transport providers from new EU member states. That has different effects on the means of transportation and sub-markets: In road, air and sea fright, the majority of experts expect significant price increases, since these are the transport branches where high oil prices will hit. In the meantime, low-cost competition located along the routes towards Eastern Europe will attenuate expected price increases. With regard to rail transport, inland navigation, combined traffic as well as to courier, express and package (CEP) services, the experts assume that prices will remain unchanged or rise only moderately due to lacking volume growth and strong competition.

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a quarterly survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipping industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. The study focusses on the following transport areas: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41(0)61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de