ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer - Significant Increase in Transport Prices Expected for the Next Six Months

In the coming six months, companies will have to face substantial transport price increases. These are the findings of the current ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a quarterly survey among 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry, conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

On a six month horizon, the experts interviewed in the fourth quarter of 2005 expect considerable price increases in road, air and sea transport. The assumed price increases for land transport are higher than recorded in the previous survey three months ago, whereas the estimated increases for intercontinental transport were lower. Furthermore, the experts forecast stronger price increases in rail transport and inland shipping than in the last quarter.

Their assessment of price development seems to be particularly influenced by growing transport volumes in certain transport sectors and relations, as well as by the pronounced rise in oil prices and other cost factors. However, the price decreasing influence of transport competitors from new EU Member States is no longer as visible as in previous surveys.

In view of persistently high oil prices and unclear growth perspectives for the economy and global trade, the experts' forecasts concerning the development of transport volumes in the coming six months differ greatly between the individual transport sectors and relations. The forecasts for transport volumes in rail transport and inland navigation are rather modest, but still higher than in the previous quarter. In all other transport sectors, the experts assume rising volumes. In contrast, the expectations with regard to intercontinental freight transport by air and sea have weakened, compared to the previous quarter.

Growth expectations for German and West European domestic traffic have, by now, evened out at a rather similar level. The demand for transport to eastern Europe particularly by rail and road was more positively assessed than in the previous survey. A certain insecurity resides in intercontinental transport relations, especially with the Asia/Pacific region.

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a quarterly survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. The study focusses on the following transport areas: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41(0)61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de