ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer - Weakened Growth Prospects in German Transport

At the "transport logistic 2005" fair in Munich, people talked of booming markets and good prospects for Germany as a logistics hub. The quarterly Transport Market Barometer, a survey conducted by ProgTrans, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, now surprises by depicting a completely different picture of the German transport sector.

Within the framework of the Transport Market Barometer in May 2005, the 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry who participated in the survey clearly lowered their growth expectations for transport volumes compared to the previous quarters. One reason appears to be the overall bleak atmosphere with regard to the economic situation. Companies with a demand for transport services, however, can breathe a sigh of relief. The surveyed experts assume that on a six-month horizon, transport prices will remain broadly stable. Just about six months ago, they rather tended to forecast price increases.

The current survey once again shows that some transport markets have better growth prospects than others. Six-month growth expectations for German domestic traffic and Western European traffic mainly range at a low level and are decreasing slightly. En routes to Eastern Europe, the experts consider the development of demand to be comparatively higher, even if growth prospects in this area are no longer viewed as positively as in the previous surveys. By contrast, the experts estimate that air and sea freight provide more favourable growth prospects. The strongest potential for growth is expected in transport relations with the Asia/Pacific region.

Now that the introduction of the toll has been completed, the experts' expectations for price development in road freight have returned to normal. The results for all other means of transport paint a surprisingly homogeneous picture. However, the differences between land transport on the one hand and intercontinental transport on the other are still clearly visible since price developments in this area depend on various factors.

With regard to road freight and courier, express and package services (CEP), the experts forecast stable to slightly rising prices, but compared to the previous quarters, the share of those expecting price increases has significantly dropped again. The toll effect thus seems to have faded, but the enlargement of the EU still affects the experts' forecasts for Eastern European transport. Many more participants expect a price decrease in Eastern European traffic than in domestic or Western European traffic.

The experts seem to project the price developments in road freight onto the other means of transport, rail, inland navigation, and combined traffic, in an attenuated manner. At least that is what the results of the study suggest. In air freight, the share of experts who forecast rising prices has grown again, whereas in sea freight, it has decreased slightly. However, both are ranging at a comparatively high level.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41(0)61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de