ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) – Mostly Stable Prices in the Next Six Months

A considerable percentage of the German transport economy seems to have past the lowest point of the economic crisis with regard to the transport volume. Against the background of better economic outlooks, experts are more optimistic that the transport volume is going to increase over the next six months. However, the outlooks for the individual transport sectors and for the different relations vary. An overall price stability is expected. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the third quarter of 2009. ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, conduct this quarterly barometer. Around 300 experts in the fields of transport economy and goods cargo participated in this survey.

The current survey in the third quarter of 2009 indicates that the development of the transport volume for road freight transport, combined cargo and parcel services is considered most favourable. The outlooks for the inland and ocean shipping sectors are also mostly positive. The experts are still rather pessimistic about rail cargo and air cargo. With regard to individual transport relations, inland transports receive relatively good results. Eastern Europe and North America transport, on the other hand, receive rather bad results.

Expectations on price development clearly indicate that steady prices are expected for the next six months. These expectations vary largely for the different transports and relations. This is because important influential variables are developing in different directions. Fuel prices have been increasing since March 2009, but, at the same time, stagnant demand in the last few years has met very different competition situations. Road and rail cargo as well as parcel services are expected to have mostly stable prices. Combined transport is expected to have a tendency to an increase in prices. Other transport sectors are expected to have a tendency to a decline in prices. Expectations for ocean shipping differ on price development.

For further information please contact

Dr. Claudia Hermeling (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-216, E-mail: hermeling@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.