ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) – Substantial Price Increase in Road Freight Expected

In Germany, the costs for road transport will significantly grow in the next six months. For international combined traffic as well as intercontinental air and see freight relations comparably high price increases are expected. On the other hand, the situation in rail transport and courier, express and package services (CEP) is a completely different one. In these areas the price situation is likely to ease over the coming six months.

These are the findings of the current ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the second quarter of 2007. In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) interview some 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.

The fact that experts assume significant price increases particularly in road freight results from the unfavourable development of important cost factors. The current diesel prices for example have almost reached their long-term high and the truck toll is expected to be raised this year. It is not yet clear to what extent the incline in labour costs may be reflected in the prices and if the cost increase due to the new working hour regulations can be passed on to the prices completely.

The experts assess the development of the transport volume in the next six months with growing confidence concerning the future trend in the economy and foreign trade, two key determinants of transport demand. In this context, the expectations for the individual transport branches and the different relations vary. Transport volume of road freight is expected to grow in general. The transport volume of CEP services as well as air and sea freight is likely to significantly increase on an international and intercontinental level. The perspectives for rail transport are also assessed in a much more optimistic way than in previous surveys. Only in terms of inland navigation, the expectations are comparatively restrained.

However the assessment of the individual transport relations shows only little variation. Inland traffic is judged in a rather restrained way. Regarding air and sea freight, intercontinental traffic shows a considerably stronger development than European traffic. The high expectations of Eastern European relations have returned to normal.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a quarterly survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road freight, rail freight, inland navigation, combined transport, and CEP services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and the Asia-Pacific region.