Strong Rise in Expectations

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased substantially in November 2019. Currently standing at minus 2.1 points, the indicator climbed 20.7 points compared to the previous month.  For the current survey, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has again improved slightly by 0.6 points, with the corresponding indicator increasing to a current reading of minus 24.7 points.

“There is growing hope that the international economic policy environment will improve in the near future, which explains the sharp rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in November. In the meantime, the chances for a agreement between Great Britain and the EU and thus for a regulated withdrawal of Great Britain have noticeably increased. Punitive tariffs on car imports from the EU to the United States are also less likely than the projections a few weeks ago. An agreement in the trade conflict between the USA and China is appearing more likely too,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

Financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone has also improved greatly, bringing the indicator to a current level of minus 1.0 points for November, 22.5 points higher than in the previous month. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone rose significantly by 6.8 points, with the new value increasing to a current reading of minus 19.6 points.

Expectations of inflation developments and short-term interest rates in the euro area have also risen significantly. The inflation indicator currently stands at 12.2 points, 11.2 points higher than in the previous month. The indicator regarding expectations for short-term interest rates rose by 13.4 points to a level of minus 11.7 points, though the majority of participants (84.1 percent) expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the next six months.

More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2020 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)