The Effects of the Influx of Refugees on Unemployment, Voting Behaviour and Crime Rates in Germany

The effects of the large influx of refugees arriving in Germany have been the focus of intense political and social debate. A joint study by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, and the University of Strathclyde has been investigating the short-term effects of this migration on unemployment, crimes rates and voting behaviour in Germany. The results of the study show that increased migration leads to higher unemployment rates among non-German workers in particular. Crime rates experienced only a negligible change. A larger influx of refugees or the existence of an immigrant reception centre in a particular region does not on their own lead to greater electoral success for anti-migration parties, such as the AfD ("Alternative for Germany"), in comparison with other regions with no large influxes of migrants or reception centres.

The study is largely based on data from the state ministries on the distribution of refugees and refugee allocation capacity at a regional level between 2013 and mid-2016. The collected data thus provides observations for each region both before and after the refugee crisis.

The study shows no indication that local German-born workers were squeezed out by migrant workers during the time frame in question. There was also no difference evident between states with lower levels of migration and those with higher levels. In fact, total unemployment actually decreased slightly across all regions.The presence or maximum capacity of a refugee reception centre in a particular region has no impact on the rate of unemployment when compared to regions with no reception centres. There is, however, a link between an increase in the number of migrants and a rise in the unemployment rate among non-German workers. In the first quarter of 2016, for instance, German unemployment statistics recorded an additional 150,000 non-German job seekers. This means that the average unemployment rate among this particular group rises by 1.2 per cent when, for every 100,000 German residents, 387 refugees are added to the population.

The influx of migrants has only had rather marginal effects on crime rates

The influx of migrants has only had isolated and until now rather marginal effects on crime rates. With the exception of migrants breaking the terms of their right to residence or asylum, there is no connection between the number of refugees and the number of criminal offences committed in Germany, according to the ZEW study. In general, over the last two years the number of criminal offences has only risen marginally in regions which have had to cope with larger influxes of refugees. There is, however, indication of a link between larger refugee reception centres and drug-related crimes and fare-dodging as well as a higher number of non-German suspects in relation to these crimes.

When it come to drug-related crimes, there are significant effects associated with refugee reception camps. The average refugee capacity per region of 200 extra beds per 100,000 residents is linked to an increase of around four additional drug-related crimes; that amounts to an average increase in drug-related crime of around 1.4 per cent in these regions. Furthermore, the results suggest that the opening of a refugee camp results in an increase in drug-related offences committed by both Germans and non-Germans.

A large influx of migrants is on its own not a decisive factor in the electoral success of the AfD

There is little indication that direct contact with refugees or their placement in a particular region made voters living there more likely to vote for or against anti-immigration parties. "By comparing the various regions we can see that a large influx of migrants in a particular region or the presence of a reception centre there is on its own not a decisive factor in the electoral success of the AfD," explains Martin Ungerer, ZEW economist and co-author of the study. According to Ungerer, the electoral victories of the AfD in constituencies experiencing higher influxes of migrants are no more pronounced than those in constituencies with lower levels of migration. "Our results do, however, show that the incumbent parties ­on state level – the Christ-Democrats (CDU), the Social-Democrats (SPD) – as well as the Green party were all forced to accept heavier losses in constituencies with greater increases in migrant numbers," states Ungerer. The incumbent parties lost on average 4.5 per cent of their share of the vote for every 387 migrants per 100,000 residents added to the population.

For further information please contact

Martin Ungerer, Phone +49(0)621/1235-303, E-mail ungerer@zew.de

Markus Gehrsitz, Phone +44 (0)141 548 3960, E-mail markus.gehrsitz@strath.ac.uk