Transport Markets - Companies Must Expect Price Increases for Transport Services
ResearchCompanies with a demand for transport services are likely to face rising prices on German and international transport markets over the coming six months. This development is mostly driven by the impending introduction of the truck toll, effective on January 1, 2005, and increased fuel costs.
These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer, a quarterly survey among 300 top executives of the transport and loading industry conducted by progtrans, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim. The experts surveyed in the fourth quarter of 2004 largely assume price increases on all transport markets within the coming months.
Prices in road freight and among courier, express and package (CEP) services are expected to grow due to the announced truck toll entering into force on January 1, 2005. With regard to eastern European transport, however, less experts forecast price increases, probably because of local transport competitors with lower costs.
The majority of the experts reckon that rising prices in road freight and surging fuel costs indicate price increases for other land transport modes such as rail, domestic shipping and combined traffic.
The number of experts forecasting higher prices in air and sea freight has kept rising compared with the previous quarters. This development of experts' opinions has been visible among the participants of the Transport Market Barometer for three quarters.
When asked to assess transport volume developments on a six-month horizon, most respondents were not sure whether economic revitalisation was likely. All in all, they expect no changes to the current trend and thus continue to forecast slightly growing freight volumes. The expectations regarding individual transport sectors and relations, however, vary more than usual.
Growth expectations for German domestic transport remain largely stable. Less experts than in the previous quarter expect rising transport volumes. With regard to western European transport, the experts (further) lowered their assessments relative to the previous quarters - except for rail cargo. The trends for eastern European transport vary greatly. In the fourth quarter of 2004, volume forecasts for conventional road freight and CEP transport were revised upwards, whereas the expectations regarding rail cargo and domestic shipping dampened slightly. The projections for combined traffic remain largely unchanged.
In air and sea freight, growth prospects regarding the European transport market and North America relations have been withdrawn as well. Sea freight from and to the Asia/Pacific region provides the strongest growth prospects and the trend is rising.
The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)
The ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a quarterly survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipping industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to assess the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. The study focusses on the following transport areas: road freight, rail cargo, inland shipping, combined traffic, courier, express and package services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight from Germany and other European countries to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.
Contact
Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 (0)61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com