TransportmarktBarometer ProgTrans/ZEW (Transport Market Barometer)- Catch-Up Effect In Freight Traffic Diminishing After Financial And Economic Crisis

The catch-up effect visible in freight traffic after the economic and financial crisis will diminish in the next six months. The transport volume will further increase, but not as much as in 2010. The increase in prices will also continue, but depending on the transport sector this increase varies. These are the findings of the TransportmarktBarometer ProgTrans/ZEW (Transport Market Barometer) in the first quarter of 2011. Every three months, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey around 300 transport market experts on their assessment of the development of transport markets and prices for the next six months.

The transport market experts expect that, in the next six months, the slight increase in the transport volume will continue. The assessment for the individual transport sectors and the different relations, however, varies. In the transport sectors road freight, courier, express and package services (CEP) and combined traffic, the growth rates will remain stable on a high level. For rail cargo and domestic shipping, on the other hand, the experts expect stable or little growth, whereas air and sea freight are the transport sectors expected to grow the most. With regard to the individual transport relations, in particular intercontinental transport is assessed as the driving force for the increase in transport volume.

The experts’ assessment regarding the development of transport prices in the next six months is more moderate than in the pervious quarter. However, the effects of the Arabian democracy movements were difficult to anticipate during the survey period. Distinctions can be made for the individual transport sectors and relations. For instance, the experts consider an increase in prices for road freight as well as air and sea freight likely, whereas they are more moderate towards increasing prices for courier, express and package services (CEP). According to the experts’ view, freight rates in domestic shipping will continue to show only a slightly increasing tendency.

For further information please contact

Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-208, E-mail achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com