Weaker Business Expectations for Chinese Economy

In the most recent January survey (conducted between 3 and 17 January 2017), business expectations for China have declined. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has dropped by 10.9 points compared to November 2016 to a current total of minus 5.9 points. This falls far below the current long-term average of 5.1 points. The assessment of the current economic situation is more positive: at 2.4 points, the corresponding indicator is currently 7.6 points higher compared to November 2016.

A growth rate of 6.5 per cent is currently being predicted for the current year of 2017. This would constitute a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the recently published official growth figures for 2016, which record a 6.7 per cent increase in the GDP. A further reduction in the annual growth rate by 0.1 percentage points down to 6.4 per cent is expected in 2018.

Although business expectations continued to fluctuate quite markedly over the past year, a downward trend in the responses is nevertheless distinguishable. This trend is reflected in the point forecasts. However, the surveyed experts do not currently seem to see any greater dangers to the Chinese economy, for example resulting from a possible decline in exports. The majority of experts continue to predict an increase in exports over the next six months, and even a greater share of world trade for China. Buoyed by healthy domestic consumption, imports are also expected to continue to increase. The current mood among experts thus seems to be "business as usual".

For further information please contact

Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone +49(0)621 1235-368, E-mail schroeder@zew.de