ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - Economic Expectations Decline

The ZEW-CS Indicator of economic expectations for Switzerland has been rising for several months in a row – in March 2013, it is declining for the first time since October 2012. The indicator decreases by 7.7 points to a level of 2.3 points, thereby stabilising close to the neutral level of zero. This development suggests that the analysts surveyed expect a stable economic situation until this year’s third quarter. The ZEW-CS Indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS). The indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.

The ZEW-CS indicator’s change in March mainly results from the shift of expectations of a group of analysts who, contrary to their optimistic view in February, are now taking a more observant position. The group of experts forecasting a stable economic situation in the next half-year has thus grown significantly. At the same time, the share of analysts expecting economic conditions to deteriorate over the next six months has decreased in March for the sixth consecutive time. The share of analysts with this view now amounts to 13.3 per cent, the lowest level since April 2011.

The assessment of the current economic situation in Switzerland is on a broadly stable level in this year’s first quarter. The indicator of the current economic situation decreases slightly by 2.4 points and reaches a level of 15.6 points in March. Three out of four survey participants consider the current economic environment "normal." This is also reflected in recent economic data such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which has rebounded into the "growth" zone.

For further information please contact

Lena Jaroszek (ZEW), Phone +49 621/1235-380, E-mail jaroszek@zew.de

Maxime Botteron (Credit Suisse), Phone +41 443329061, E-mail maxime.botteron@credit-suisse.com