ZEW Energy Market Barometer – Decreasing Energy Security in Europe Expected

According to energy market experts, the energy security in Europe will decrease over the next ten years. Especially the energy security through crude oil is assessed pessimistically. Regarding the question on energy security through oil, over 52 per cent of the experts indicate that the energy security in Europe through this energy source will decrease over the next ten years. Whereas only about three per cent believe in an increasing energy security through oil and about 45 per cent expect an unmodified situation. But also the energy security through natural gas and electricity is assessed with criticism by the experts. Only with carbon, there are as many experts expecting decreasing energy security as there are experts expecting increasing energy security over the next ten years. These are the results of a survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)in Mannheim, Germany in the course of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer which every six months interviews 200 energy market experts on the developments on the energy markets.

Regarding the energy security through natural gas, with 54 per cent, well over half of the surveyed experts do not expect any changes. But, 31 per cent of the survey participants fear a deterioration of the situation in the future, while only 15 per cent expect that the energy security through natural gas will improve. These assessments could reflect the significant downturn of the European crude oil production which is still the most important energy source, and that an increasing part of the imports is expected from unstable regions in the Middle East. About 90 per cent of the oil consumed in the 27 European member states is imported. Only 60 per cent of the natural gas is imported. But, with natural gas, the part of a single provider is larger (about 40 per cent of all natural gas imports to the EU comes from Russia).

The assessments with coal are somewhat more optimistic. A clear majority of 68 per cent does not expect any changes in the energy security through coal. With 16 per cent each, the assessments whether the energy security through coal will decrease or increase are in balance. Although coal is the most important combustible in the production of electricity, the opinions on energy security are more pessimistic. In fact, 55 per cent of the experts surveyed by the ZEW expect an unmodified energy security over the next decade, but nearly one third of the experts express concerns that the energy security with electricity will decrease. Only twelve per cent expect that the situation will improve. With electricity, these concerns could be due to the fear of insufficient investments in power plants and the electrical system over the next years.

For further information please contact

Dr. Ulf Moslener, E-mail: modlener@zew.de

Dr. Andreas Löschel, Phone: +49 621/1235-200, E-mail: loeschel@zew.de