ZEW Energy Market Barometer - Economic Crisis Abruptly Stops a Further Rise in Energy Prices in Germany

The ongoing recession and the declining industrial production coming along with it have, for the time being, ended the rise in energy prices in Germany. The prices for electricity, crude oil and coal will stagnate in the coming six months. The price for natural gas will even fall by mid-year. However, for the coming five years prices for electricity, oil, coal and gas are likely to rise again. These are the findings of the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer conducted end 2008 among 200 energy experts from academia and industry about the development on the energy markets.

For the next six months less than one fourth of the experts expect rising electricity prices for Germany. In contrast, approximately 54 per cent assume that prices for electricity remain stable. Around 23 per cent of the participants even expect electricity prices to fall in Germany. Since the Energy Market Barometer was introduced in 2003, this has been the first time so many experts predict falling energy prices for the coming six months.

According to the experts the economic crisis also has a strong impact on the prices for crude oil. Although 21 per cent of the participants expect the prices for crude oil to rise again over the coming six months, a vast majority of around 61 per cent assume that prices are likely to remain constant. About 18 per cent even expect crude oil prices to fall below the level of December 2008 by mid-year.

Around 57 per cent of the experts expect coal prices to stagnate within the coming six months. A further 31 per cent of the participants even presume that prices for coal are likely to decline. Only around 12 per cent expect prices to rise during this time.

The expectations concerning the prices for natural gas obviously reflect the deterred impact of the dependence on the oil price. In the second half of the year 2008 crude oil prices fell from 140 US-Dollars per barrel to less than 40 US-Dollars per barrel. For this reason 52 per cent of the participating experts expect declin-ing gas prices in Germany over the coming six months. As many as 33 per cent expect the price level to be stable on the basis of December 2008. A minority of 15 per cent of the experts predict rising gas prices.

However, for the coming five years the vast majority of the experts prognosticate rising energy prices. Around 89 per cent of the survey participants expect rising prices for crude oil as well as natural gas in the near future. Around 88 per cent prognosticate increasing electricity prices and more than three fourths of the participants in the ZEW Energy Market Barometer also ex-pect increasing coal prices. Only ten per cent of the experts expect prices to remain stable for electricity and oil. Eleven per cent assume this to be true for natural gas. As many as 21 per cent of the experts prognosticate the price level for coal to remain unchanged within the coming five years. Only a very small minority of the experts expects declining prices for electricity, oil, gas and coal in the near future.

For further information please contact

Nikolas Wölfing, Phone: +49/621/1235-217, E-mail: woelfing@zew.de

Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel, Phone: +49/621/1235-200, E-mail: loeschel@zew.de