ZEW Energy Market Barometer - Energy Prices Remain Steady in the Short Run

In the coming six months, energy prices in Germany will remain stable. Only in the medium run will wholesale customers have to reckon with rising prices for electricity, oil, natural gas, and coal. These are the findings of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a biannual survey carried out by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) amongst approximately 200 energy market experts.

Looking at the next six-month period, the majority of experts expect to see steady prices rises for electricity (59 per cent), crude oil (66 per cent), natural gas (62 per cent), and coal (80 per cent). Average estimates for short-term price changes total zero per cent for electricity, natural gas and coal; and one per cent for crude oil.

Aside from steady short-term expectations, respondents expect energy prices to rise again in the medium-term. According to around 70 per cent of the experts surveyed, German wholesale customers will be expected to pay higher prices for electricity and natural gas within the next five years. 80 per cent of experts assume that the price of crude oil will rise in the medium-term. 14 per cent of those experts who expect to see rising crude oil prices even expect significant price rises over the next five years. Far fewer respondents predict significant price rises for electricity (three per cent) and natural gas (two per cent).

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer

The ZEW Energy Market Barometer is a biannual survey conducted amongst some 200 experts from academia and the private sector (including energy supply, trading, and service providers). Participants are surveyed in regard to their expectations concerning short- (six-month horizon) and medium-term (five-year horizon) developments in national and international energy markets and prices.

For more information please contact

Robert Germeshausen, Phone +49(0)621/1235-218, E-mail germeshausen@zew.de