ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations for the CEE Region Decrease

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) has declined by 11.6 points in September 2011 for the fourth consecutive month. The indicator now stands at the minus 38.0 mark. The economic sentiment indicator for the CEE region and further financial market data have been surveyed monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

Experts’ expectations for the CEE region might have been affected by significantly worsened economic expectations for some CEE countries – Hungary, Poland and Croatia as well as rising concerns about Eurozone’s economic prospects. The indicators reflecting the economic expectations for Hungary, Poland and Croatia have dropped by 31.8 points, 21.6 points and 17.7 points respectively in this months’ survey. Economic Expectations for the Eurozone have dropped by 25.6 points to its historical minimum of minus 67.4 points.

The assessments of the current economic situation in the CEE region have slightly increased by 4.4 points to the 7.2 mark in September. The evaluation of the current economic situation in the Eurozone has worsened by 10.9 points to a level of minus 50.1 points.

Information concerning further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individually analysed CEE countries or Austria can be found in the table at the end of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the individual CEE countries and Austria as their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and the Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and since October 2010 Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49  621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de