ZEW-Erste Group Bank Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Reduced economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank CEE Indicator has dropped by 8.7 points in December 2010, now noting at 22.7 points. This reflects more cautious economic expectations on a six-months time horizon for Central and Eastern Europe, including Turkey (CEE) compared to the previous month. Economic sentiment and other financial market data for the CEE region are collected on a monthly basis by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, in cooperation with the Erste Group Bank, Vienna.

However, the decline in the economic expectations of the financial market experts should be considered in the context that 58.5 percent of the survey participants do not expect economic sentiment in the CEE region to deteriorate or rise within the next six months. This assessment of a widely stable economic situation is not included in the calculation of the indicator.

The assessment of the current economic situation in the CEE region has improved again in December. The respective indicator has climbed by 5.3 points to 22.0 points. Expectations for the Eurozone have decreased by 7.2 points in December, leaving them at minus 1.7 points. The experts’ view on the current situation in the Eurozone has also deteriorated. The respective indicator has dropped by 7.6 points to minus 29.1 points.

For further information on other indicators of the CEE region, the euro zone, the individual CEE countries covered in the survey and Austria, please see the table below. Answers from all survey participants are considered in the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the euro zone and Turkey. Turkish participants were not taken into account in the calculations for the individual CEE countries or Austria, because the great share of Turkish participants could cause a bias in the results.

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and the Erste Group Bank AG Vienna. The goal of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and since October 2010 of Turkey. The financial experts are questioned on their evaluation of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six months’ time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly "Financial Market Report CEE" contains the results for every CEE country and for Austria in detail.

For further information please contact

Dr. Mariela Borell, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-144, E-Mail: borell@zew.de